Offsetting underestimations?

With one week to go until election day in the United States, many believe that the poll lead held by Barack Obama over John McCain may be insufficient for an Obama win because of the tendency of polls to underestimate the number of voters who switch their allegiance from a black candidate to a white candidate in the privacy of the booth.

'The Bradley Effect' is caused by the most reprehensible racists of all... those who know their prejudices are unacceptable but indulge them nonetheless. These people are so ashamed of their behaviour that they opt to keep their decision secret which makes them very hard to reach with rational argument. Ironically enough, it is precisely the kind of thing that 19th Century opponents of secret ballots feared might happen... one South Carolinian said at the time of its introduction that voting secretly would “destroy that noble generous openness that is characteristic of an Englishman" and Virginian John Randolph pronounced that it “would make any nation a nation of scoundrels.” They may have been on to something.

Plainly, the evils of intimidation that would result from open ballots are a greater mischief than the tendency of a small minority to exploit the secrecy of the ballot booth to cast their vote in a fashion they cannot justify to their peers. But isn't it disappointing that this phenomenon occurs most markedly when there is a candidate in the field whose skin colour is different from the majority of voters?

This time around though, it seems possible that another underestimation may offset The Bradley Effect... and that was the underestimation of the American public contained in the decision by The Republican Party to select Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate. Even many of those who initially admired Palin's unconventional approach now seem to be recognising that she is not even close to possessing the qualities required for such an important office.

There may even be a recognition that the decision to select Sarah Palin was an insult to the intelligence of the American public. It seems perfectly valid for wavering voters in the US to respond to Palin's nomination by asking: "just how stupid does the Republican Party think we are?"

John McCain's acquiescence in the selection of Palin and his failure to block the more extreme criticisms of his opponent have soiled his reputation as an honourable man. He could still partially redeem himself by stating publicly that he does not want the votes of those inclined to vote for Obama who are reluctant to do so because of his race.

Such a move would inevitably boost his standing as a political figure and, ironically, it would probably also boost his chances of causing an upset as it might demonstrate to some undecided voters that he is not the reactionary bigot some assume him to be. This certainly seems to have been what happened when Boris Johnson asked BNP supporters not to select him as their second-choice in the Mayoral election in London earlier this year.

It’s seldom the case that the right thing to do is also the politically expedient thing to do... but it is in this case and John McCain would go up in many people’s estimation if he took the opportunity to reject the support of America’s bigots.